Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Research Articles

Rethinking Optimum Currency Area in East and South-East Asia: New Empirical Evidence

This paper evaluates the viability of a monetary union or optimum currency area (OCA) in East and South-East Asia. Previous studies have mainly focused on a single aspect of integration, which has led to contrary findings. We adopt several alternative approaches that cover fiscal, output, and price aspects to accomplish the objective. As the synchronization of business cycle is a key prerequisite for forming an OCA, we test the level of business cycle synchronization among the countries of this region. The results of synchronization testing appear favorable, thus, strengthening the argument for forming a monetary union. Our analysis also shows that the regional shock is a dominating factor determining output movements in these countries. Next, we use a generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) procedure to test the long-run interrelationship among bilateral real exchange rates. Our findings based on bilateral real exchange rates indicate that the vital macroeconomic variables that determine real exchange rates, such as trade, finance, and price movements, are highly associated in the region. We also find that the short-run adjustment speed is sufficiently large for most exchange rates, barring a few. Consequently, we show that most economies in the region are sufficiently integrated to form a monetary union at any time.

A new assessment of economic integration in East Asia: Application of an industry-specific G-PPP model

It is well known that intra-industry trade and cross-border production networks have promoted economic growth and regional integration in East Asia. However, regional supply and production chains may have been formed differently across industries, reflecting different degrees and a different scope of regional economic linkages at an industry level. This paper makes a threefold contribution. First, to assess industry-level differences, this study adopts the generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) model using industry-specific producer prices. Second, the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model is employed to allow for possible nonlinearity arising from the dynamic nature of regional economic growth and development. Third, the Granger causality test is also conducted to assess whether regional economies have autonomously integrated. The empirical results reveal that economic integration has progressed more autonomously in the electrical industry, as well as in the transportation equipment industry, as China and the ASEAN countries have become the final destination markets for finished products in these two industries.

Is SADC an optimal currency area? Evidence from the generalized purchasing power parity test

In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from the view point of the generalized purchasing power parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-integration technique. The findings from this study confirm that GPPP holds among SADC member countries included in this study on account of cointegration and stationarity in real exchange rate series. South African rand normalized long run beta coefficients of all the real exchange rates are below one except in the case of the Mauritian rupee and all bear negative signs except in the case of the Angolan New Kwanza and Mauritian rupee. This is evidence that supports monetary union in the region except for Angola and Mauritius. Moreover, the panel cointegration tests also confirm the cointegration among real exchange rate series of SADC countries. However, the absolute magnitudes of the short run adjustment coefficients of SADC countries’ real exchange rates are low and bear positive signs in some cases. This finding implies that the observed slow speed of adjustment for (log) real exchange rate of SADC member states might constrain the effectiveness of stabilization policies in the wake of external shocks, rendering SADC countries vulnerable to macroeconomic instability in the region. This result has important policy implications for the proposed monetary union in SADC.

Is Economic Development Promoting Monetary Integration in East Asia?

This paper tries to investigate whether there exist international integrated markets among East Asian economies, by employing the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP) model, then, it would help to suggest whether the East Asian region is the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) or not. The empirical results in this paper suggest that holding the G-PPP among nine Asian countries (China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) becomes more applicable in 2000–2013 than of that in 1984–1997. In the period of “globalization,” which is characterized by expansion of world trade, increase of international capital flows, and development of information and communications technologies, Asian economic development has been promoting not only economic integrations but also constructing the stable linkages of real exchange rates. Therefore, it would help to adopt regional coordination for monetary policies to assure the feasibility of a possible monetary union.

Is theGulfCooperationCouncil an Optimum Currency Area?

This article applies the theory of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G‐PPP) to assess the potential for an optimum currency area (OCA) for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period 1973–2009. Utilizing a multivariate cointegration procedure that allows for up to two predetermined structural breaks, the results suggest that theGCCcountries could form anOCAsince macroeconomic conditions are in favor of forming anOCA, i.e., real exchange rates share common trends and the parameter stability test indicates that the G‐PPPrelationship has been stable for the period analyzed. Moreover, the results suggest that the withdrawal ofOman and/orUnitedArabEmirates (UAE) from the union has no impact on forming the union. However, based on otherOCAcriteria, the results suggest that theOCAmay be challenged.

ARE THE "ASEAN PLUS THREE" COUNTRIES COMING CLOSER TO AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA?

This paper aims to investigate whether the East Asian countries — ASEAN5, China, Korea, and Japan — have developed a matching Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory in recent years because the establishment of stable exchange rate linkages and the enhancement of monetary policy credibility are needed for further economic developments in East Asia. In developing the earlier generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) model into an up-to-date nonlinear econometric model and considering the adoption of the Asian Monetary Unit (AMU) into this area, this paper could have positive empirical results, which suggest for forming a common currency area in East Asia.

South East Asian Monetary Integration: New Evidences from Fractional Cointegration of Real Exchange Rates

We study the long-run relationship of real exchanges rates (RERs) among the ASEAN-5 countries by testing the theory of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP) from the new perspective of fractional cointegration. The long-run co-movements of the RERs are examined by applying a recent estimator of fractional cointegration that consists of a frequency Whittle approximation of the cointegrating system’s likelihood function. The contribution of the fractional cointegration study is justified by identifying several weak fractional cointegration relationships that signal that deviations of RERs from their long-run equilibrium are highly persistent. These findings contrast with all previous studies that restrict their investigation to the traditional I(1)/I(0) cointegration. Our results support further monetary integration among different sub-groups of the ASEAN-5 countries as they share long-run comovements with each others. However, a full-fledged monetary union embracing all ASEAN-5 members is still limited from the perspective of the G-PPP theory.

Is an Optimum Currency Area Feasible in East and South East Asia?

In the backdrop of the recent economic crisis in the European Union, this study attempts to assess the degree of regional integration and the suitability of a monetary union in the East and South-East Asian (ESEA) region. For this purpose, we analyse the issue in a variety of ways. First, a long-run linkage of real output of the countries is tested using the cointegration analysis. Results suggest that real output of most of the countries in the region is cointegrated and move together in the long-run. To analyse the issue in detail, we focus on the impact of three different shocks, namely global, regional and country-specific, on real output of the countries. Results of impulse response and variance decomposition analysis reveal that regional shocks do not dominate in the sample countries, which is an indication of unfavourable condition to form an optimal currency area (OCA) in the region. These results are further confirmed by the outcome of computation of the modified Bayoumi and Eichengreen's Indices. Finally, we employ the concept of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP), which however reveals that the bilateral real exchange rate of ESEA countries move together in the long-run and share a common stochastic trend, which in turn provides some empirical support for an OCA in the region.

Is East Asia an optimum currency area? A test of generalized purchasing power parity in the presence of structural breaks

This paper applies the generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) theory to assess the potential for an optimum currency area (OCA) for the ASEAN5 plus the big three (ASEAN5+Big3) during a period containing significant structural breaks, using the US, Japan and China as base countries. The relevance of considering breaks is demonstrated by utilizing the Johansen et al. (2000) procedure that allows for up to two predetermined breaks. The results provide support for long-run G-PPP and suggest that the larger group ASEAN5+Big3 could form an OCA in one step. Conversely, for smaller groups, such as the Big3, an OCA is not supported. However, adding one or more countries to the Big3 supports an OCA. The impact of the Asian crisis seems to be limited to when the US is the base country and the results suggest a change in the G-PPP relationship between the pre- and postcrisis periods. Moreover, stability tests suggest that G-PPP has been stable for the period analyzed.

Optimum currency areas, structural changes and the endogeneity of the OCA criteria: evidence from six new EU member states

This article has two aims. The first aim is to assess the potential for an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) of six New Member States (NMS) of the EU (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) with the eurozone, by applying the theory of the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP). The second aim is to examine whether the introduction of the euro in 1999 and the policy decision of the six countries to join the eurozone, have created any forces fostering their convergence – evidence which would be in line with the theory on the endogeneity of the OCA criteria. Our findings indicate that G-PPP holds for the real exchange rates of the six NMS for the post euro period, and that the introduction of the euro and the choice of the six economies to participate in the EU did promote their integration.

Monetary Integration in the Ex-Soviet Union: Some Preliminary Findings from Generalized PPP Theory

In 2003, four Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries established the Single Economic Space, and discussed the opportunity of forming a currency union. Recently, three of those countries took a step forward and adopted the Customs Union. The issue regarding monetary unification was discussed again at a Moscow conference. To examine the economic viability of this union, this paper applies the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP) theory and shows that due to the presence of asymmetric shocks and the possible surge of the Dutch disease in Ukraine and Belarus, the union might reveal to be expensive. However, when Ukraine is excluded, the three countries exhibit no asymmetric shocks.

Extended generalized purchasing power parity and optimum currency area in East Asian countries

This article extends the theory of generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) by developing a model including foreign variables such as the real money supply, output and interest rate. A cointegration rank test with two structural breaks in the deterministic trend was adopted to selected Asian countries, with Japan as the base country. There were two cointegrating vectors and six common stochastic trends in the model. The cointegrating vectors were estimated by the same approach used by Pesaran et al. (2000). The first cointegrating vector is interpreted as G-PPP, and the second one is interpreted as the extended G-PPP. According to G-PPP, these countries could form a single currency area. The first stochastic trend is primarily driven by Japan's real money supply; the second, third and fourth by the real exchange rates of the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, respectively; the fifth by Japan's output; and the sixth by Japan's government bond yields.

Prospects for enhanced exchange rate cooperation in East Asia: some preliminary findings from generalized PPP theory1

The Asian financial crisis increased economic disparities in the East Asian (EA) region, thus making monetary integration more difficult, but rekindled political interest in Asian monetary and exchange rate cooperation. This article applies the theory of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP), which looks at the behaviour of long-run real exchange rates, to assess the potential for an optimum currency area (OCA) among a subset of EA countries based on five of the more advanced members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN5). Our findings suggest little support for an OCA for ASEAN5 as a bloc prior to the Asian financial crisis and mixed results in the post-crisis period. In particular, asymmetries in the way countries adjust to shocks and low or insignificant speeds of adjustment were found. Thus, although the application of single OCA criteria is notoriously demanding and our tests apply to only one of the many criteria for the successful formation of an OCA, we cannot find persuasive evidence that ASEAN5 as a group constitute a potential currency area with either the USA or Japan, even when the ‘noisy’ period of the Asian financial crisis is omitted. 1 A first draft of this article was presented at the Western Economic Association International Pacific Rim Conference, Taipei in January 2003. We would also like to thank the Staff of the Regional Economic Monitoring Unit (REMU) at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Manila for their helpful comments on an earlier draft.

Optimal currency area: An empirical study on selected East Asian economies

This paper empirically examines the potential for forming an Optimal Currency Area (OCA) in selected Asian economies, including ASEAN countries, China, Japan and Korea, by testing Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP) using Johansen’s cointegration approach. We investigate the long-term real exchange rate of six sub-groups of countries in order to find whether they share the common stochastic trend, as in an OCA, predicted by the G-PPP theory. The date set is monthly based between 1994 and 2003. We find that five sub-groups out of the six in total appear to have significant evidence of the existence of OCAs. This finding reflects the fact that those economies are actually highly integrated and interrelated to each other, and the current regional monetary arrangement (such as, the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI)) is far lagging behind the real economic link in East Asia.

Do Hong Kong Sar and China Constitute an Optimal Currency Area? An Empirical Test of the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis

The paper explores the behavior of the long-run real exchange rate (RER) of Hong Kong SAR and China by testing the generalized-purchasing power parity hypothesis (G-PPP). The hypothesis argues that if the fundamental variables determining RERs are sufficiently integrated, as in a currency area, the RERs should share common trends. The findings of this study suggest (1) at present, Hong Kong SAR and China do not satisfy the conditions necessary for forming an optimal currency area by themselves; (2) when Japan and the United States are added to the group, common trends can be found; and (3) the long-run elasticity between the RERs of Hong Kong SAR and China is negative.

Theory and Tests of Generalized Purchasing‐Power Parity: Common Trends and Real Exchange Rates In the Pacific Rim

AbstractThe paper develops the theory of generalized purchasing‐power parity (G‐PPP) to explain the “stylized facts” of real exchange‐rate behavior. the fundamental economic variables determining real exchange rates are nonstationary; thus, real rates are nonstationary. If the fundamentals are sufficiently integrated, as in a currency area, the real rates will share common trends. the theory is tested using the Pacific Rim nations. It is shown that G‐PPP holds between each of the Pacific Rim nations and the large industrialized countries. There is only mild evidence that G‐PPP holds among the Pacific Rim nations as a group.